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Susquehanna Valley Ozone/PM2.5 Forecast

Small map of Pennsylvania showing counties involved in the sv partnership.
Forecasted AQI for Ozone Air Quality Index Scale Forecasted AQI for PM2.5
November 23, 2014

 

Date: Sunday, November 23, 2014
Action Day?:  No
Temperature: Near 50 Degrees
Discussion:
*** Saturday’s Forecast: Warm air aloft will push northward during the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Mostly clear skies and light winds with the area of high pressure nearly overhead will allow temperatures at the surface to fall into the low to mid 20s. The warmer air riding over the colder air at the surface will allow for favorable conditions to develop for PM-2.5 concentrations to climb into the moderate range on Saturday. After highs were limited to the low to mid 30s on Friday, temperatures Saturday afternoon are expected to begin climbing closer to normal by reaching the mid 40s.

Extended Forecast

Date

11/23/2014

11/24/2014

Ozone

WHITE

WHITE

PM

YELLOW

YELLOW


Extended:
*** Sunday’s Forecast: Even milder conditions are expected for Sunday with dew point temperatures also on the rise. South to southeasterly flow will help pull increasing levels of moisture into the region, though will also lead to increasing cloud cover. Temperatures will still manage to approach the 50 degree mark for the first time in about ten days, which is actually close to what we see for highs at this point in November on average. The southeasterly flow typically pulls a cleaner maritime air mass in off the ocean, but moderate PM-2.5 concentrations are still likely to occur. However, values for Sunday just may not climb higher than levels they managed to reach on Saturday. Conditions will remain mostly dry for much of the weekend, but chances for precipitation will increase late afternoon Sunday into Sunday night. *** Monday’s Forecast: A developing low pressure system off to our west will bring rain showers to the region for Monday. The track of this system will keep us in the warm sector, so frozen precipitation is not expected. Temperatures could briefly approach the 60s on Monday before a cold front arrives later in the day. PM-2.5 levels will begin the day in the moderate range, but many locations will see concentrations fall with the arrival of the rain showers. Scattered to isolated moderate levels for the day will continue while we remain in the warm and moist air mass until the arrival of the cold front. *** Extended Forecast: With the cold front pushing from the west to east by early Tuesday, we should see moisture levels decrease over the course of the day. A trend toward good air quality is expected, though some locations may see concentrations fall slowly. Good air quality is expected for the day, but there is a possibility that a few moderate readings occur. Greatest chances for good air quality will occur over the middle of the week as temperatures drop back to unseasonably colder temperatures. This next colder air mass will not be quite as cold as the recent one, allowing for highs to remain above the freezing mark after lows in the 20s at night. --- Roble

 

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