| Susquehanna
Valley Ozone/PM2.5 Forecast
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May 19, 2013
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Date: Sunday, May 19, 2013
Action Day?:
No
Temperature: Upper 60s to Low 70s
Discussion:
A pesky stationary front currently located to our south and west will play a major role in air quality conditions for the weekend. Similar to what we have seen the past few days, locations to the south of this boundary are experiencing higher low level moisture while locations to the north are much drier. This front has shifted slightly north to our west so locations around Pittsburgh are experiencing moderate air quality conditions with dew point temperatures in the upper 50s while everywhere in the forecast region here currently has dew point temperatures in the low to mid 40s with good air quality. Moderate air quality will ramp up late weekend and into the first half of next week. *** Saturday’s Forecast: The placement of the stationary front will play a big role in air quality conditions Saturday and through the weekend. The computer models have had issues over the last few days with the timing of any movement with this front, and with it expected to lift north as a warm front by late weekend we could run into this issue again. Should this moisture boundary stay to our south, dew point temperatures will remain inside the 40s for most of the day. Low moisture levels will keep PM 2.5 concentrations inside the good range. If this boundary begins to lift northward, locations that become on the southern side will see dew point temperatures climb into the 50s and PM 2.5 levels rise. Winds are expected to become more southeasterly, which will be favorable for some cloud cover to develop and limit daytime highs. Highs with the onshore flow from the currently cooler ocean will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. Ozone levels should remain inside the good range, but low moderate may be possible if we can see just enough sunshine combining with some of the modified air mass to the south of the stationary front lifting north. A chance for scattered showers late afternoon/evening may also help limit just how high Ozone levels reach.
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Extended Forecast
| Date |
5/19/2013 |
5/20/2013 |
| Ozone |
GREEN
|
GREEN
|
| PM |
YELLOW
|
YELLOW
|
Extended:
*** Sunday’s Forecast: A chance for scattered showers will continue on Sunday with the stationary boundary more likely to begin lifting northward. Onshore flow and cloud cover once again should keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s with Ozone mostly in the high good range with scattered low moderate readings again possible. PM 2.5 levels will be more likely to reach the moderate range with an already modified air mass on the southern side of the front ready to push back to the north. *** Extended Forecast: Unsettled weather will continue for most of the week with off and on showers/thunderstorms. PM 2.5 levels are likely to be the primary pollutant for most of the week. Temperatures near 80 on Monday may push into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday with southerly winds developing. PM 2.5 levels may reach the high end of the moderate range then, which will be worth keeping an eye on over the course of the weekend to update forecast as needed. --- Roble
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